South Africa

So the World Cup is over. Otgremeli fanfare otkrichalis fans, the public continues to chew on inertia scandals and absurdities, but that on long enough. Forget. And, what is most sad, forgotten and a stunning experiment in proscopia (prediction), raised in the air, before the eyes of millions of viewers. And the experiment is really interesting and makes a great deal to think about.

Octopus named Paul, live, did predict the results of matches involving the German national team. That description of the methodology of experience, taken from Wikipedia: "For the predictions in a large aquarium, where the octopus lives, lower two feeders: the flag of Germany and her opponent in the upcoming match. It is believed that he will win, with a trough whose flag was opened by Paul first. " Add from myself that all the experiments were carried out before the match. The results were great: of the eight (8) presented at the World Cup predictions of all eight (8) proved to be true! Even without any mathematical research (which later), it is clear that such a random result can not be! However, this is not the first experience of Paul in divination.

Prior to this, in 2008 he predicted the results of the German national team at EURO 2008. Then, out of 6 correct predictions were made 4. That is called, podnabralsya experience and to improve outcomes. If approach the problem mathematically, we obtain the following: applying a model of Bernoulli trials with probability of success (correct prediction) 50% (in the first approximation is quite acceptable), we obtain the probability coincidences for EURO 2008 is 0.234 (up to three decimal places) and for the entire series of 14 trials (Euro 2008 and World Cup in South Africa combined) 0.0056 (up to four decimal places).

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